Thursday, January 7, 2010

As Sarah Palin Would Say, "We Should Get Him"

I don't know if she would say that. Whatever, ignore the title.

Maybe it's because I'm looking in all the wrong places, but I'm not seeing a lot of mainstream media attention here in Canada on Aroldis Chapman. I can understand TSN and their "let's go all hockey-saturated and mention only in passing the Halladay trade when it occurred" mentality (well, kind of... no, not really actually. Even hockey fans would care about Halladay being traded, right?). But at the exciting beginning of an era for the Blue Jays and Rogers - and the potential signing of a potentially really really exciting player in Chapman - why isn't Sportsnet creating any noise about it? At the very least, the publicity that the Jays are going hard after a high-risk, high-reward player can't hurt. And it's exciting stuff that makes for good television.

With regards to the player - a young, left-handed 100 mph pitcher? And you say that he might be controllable through 2018? And at $5 million/year for the first 5 years? That's very, very reasonable, no matter how you slice it. Brad Penny is getting $7.5 million this year. He of the 1.53 WHIP while with the Red Sox this year. The Jays' unspectacular starting SS next year, Alex Gonzalez, is set to make around $3 million. Boring players who are barely good enough to have a regular job filling out a major league roster are costing teams millions and millions - and below-average pitchers are easily making more than Chapman's estimated high-end of $5 million a year. If he could turn out to be anything like another lefty fireballing starter, then the deal will have been a ridiculous bargain, costing a few spare dollars (less than half that was remaining on Rios' salary, to put that in perspective). If he ends up "meh"-ing and turns into a pretty average innings eater, it'll STILL be a good deal.

Now let's say he completely busts by 2014. His major league numbers are making Josh Towers giggle and his minor league stats could be bested by his pitching coach. For one, his potential will still have generated enough publicity that it wouldn't have been completely worthless. And even then, he'll still only be 25 and I'm sure some other GM somewhere would be willing to take a chance on a guy still under control for a few seasons - dealing maybe a prospect or two.

Thing is, you can't really worry so much about things not working out that you don't take a chance on greatness. That's one thing that the Ricciardi regime never did too well, avoiding major international signings and drafting high-school players in early rounds (they did get Snider and, well, that's not looking like a bad gamble so far). You don't win in this division by signing average players for $5 million/year, knowing that they are likely going to give you what they always have. You win by taking advantage of rare talents, especially if they'll cost you only $5 million a year. It's pretty straightforward, pretty exciting and the media should be hyping it up just a little more.

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