Misdirected Anger

Kevin Gregg is becoming a tired act with Jays fans has been getting on our nerves for a while now sucks. I know, he's third in the AL in saves, or whatever, but clean innings aren't his thing, which always makes people nervous. He was (inexplicably) incredible in April, barely walking anybody, but BBecame a BBad pitcher not too long after that. That reached its climax in that disgusting game against the Rays, in which he nibbled and nibbled, walking five(!) guys and blowing the game in spectacular fashion. Then he blew up at the ump, even though he was clearly sucking all on his own.

Tonight? Almost the same. Three walks in the ninth before being pulled by Cito while the Jays were still up. This time, it looked to me that Gregg didn't have a remotely fair strikezone (Camp, who took over, got a strike call on a pitch much farther outside than pitches Gregg didn't get), but I guess he was afraid of getting ejected again. I'm glad he didn't yell at the umpire this time, as having a reputation for being a hothead can never help you in any way, but having words for your manager after being pulled for sucking? That's weak.

Good for Cito too. Or is that him? The Manager used three pitchers in the 8th and had Camp ready if Downs hadn't gotten a DP to end the inning. Matchups, eh? I thought keeping your players' confidence up was the key to success? In any case, you can't argue with pulling Gregg in that spot. He now has a very unprofessional-looking 21 walks in just 36 innings. That's mopup man stuff right there, not closer material by any means.

For those of us sick of Gregg, we won't have to wait long. The deadline is only 2 weeks away, and with Gregg slated to be a Type B free agent in the offseason (and a low-ish salary), there's got to be some desperate team willing to toss us a few prospects for him. He also has some wacky options tied onto that contract of him for 1 or 2 years at over $4MM a season. Maybe some special GM will see those as having some value. I'm quite excited to see what guys like Purcey and Roenicke can do in high-leverage situations with some of our expiring relievers heading out the door in the next two weeks. Hopefully Gregg is one of them, because that's one walk I don't mind seeing Gregg doing.

What the Hill?

Last year, Blue Jays fans were all wondering what the heck was up with Wells and Rios. They had come off of decent although unspectacular 2008 seasons with a fair recent history of being stars. For all of the first half, I was hoping that they'd snap out of it, that they would join guys like Hill and Lind (who were mashing opposing pitchers like boiled potatoes) and create a very deep, potent offence.

Never happened. Rios ended up being given away for free to the White Sox, unloading the remaining $60MM of his long contract from the Jays' books. He ended up sucking harder than ever in the Windy City, posting an OPS of .530 (you read that right). Although I was pissed as heck at Ricciardi for giving up so quickly on a young star, seeing Rios take his "I don't give a f&ck" act to Chicago and produce slightly less than a cornfield irrigated with seawater alleviated some of that annoyance.

Wells, meanwhile, continued to suck in Toronto. I remember going to a game in September and yelling at him to not suck next year (this year) and got a lot of confused looks from fans around me. I still stand by what I said (it's not like I was booing him pointlessly or insulting his family), and hey, maybe he listened. He hasn't sucked this year. Neither has Rios, for that matter. In fact, Rios has probably been one of 2010's most dangerous hitters. I'm not even going to bother checking on his stats because that will just confirm all of our suspicions that dumping him FOR NOTHING was an idiotic idea. Especially when they were offered prospects for Rios at the deadline. And now they've traded for another young player with similar mental issues as Rios. But I digress.

I was wondering when Rios and Wells were stinking it up last year if this kind of thing could ever happen to Hill and Lind. People around me were telling me that was impossible; their mental game is much stronger. But look at Wells - he's always managed to keep a straight head and play hard, even if it didn't look like he was doing it last year. The thing is, hitting a baseball is such a difficult task that if one little thing goes wrong, everything can go wrong. If your mechanics are off by an unnoticeable sliver of a toenail, a would-be line drive can turn into a harmless grounder. Even worse: an unlucky draft of wind that blows the ball down by 1 cm before it makes contact with the bat can do the same thing, and there's nothing you can do about that. All you can hope for is that, over time, it all evens out. You expect to get a stray draft to blow the ball just onto the barrel of the bat just as often as it will knock it off.

Sounds stupid, doesn't it? Well, maybe not. Think about it - his .180 BABIP is the lowest in the majors, driven largely by a 9.2% line-drive rate (less than half his career 19%). His struggles have admittedly made him more prone to chasing pitches, swinging at 32.4% of pitches out of the zone, compared to 22.9% in his career. But he's still made contact overall 84.4% of the time, which is exactly his career average. This has generated a 14.6% K rate, which is about the same as his 14.1% in his career. Moreover, he has walked at a career high 8.9%.

I'll argue also that he has been ridiculously unlucky on balls he has hit hard. If you've been watching, you'd have noticed a lot of hard-hit ground balls and liners of his have been turned into outs. The worst thing about this is a caught line drive is much more likely to be considered a flyball than one that drops in. I don't have the statistics to back it up, but I cannot believe for a moment that he's hitting line drives 9% of the time. A lot of balls that I am certain would have been scored line drives had they been in the gaps have been snared by outfielders, making them look like simple flyballs. Finally, it seems that he's hit a ton of balls just foul down the lines. With a little more luck, his line drives in play will fall in front of outfielders or between them, and his balls down the line will be just fair. Had he been a little luckier, his line drive rate this year could have easily been 15% or so. Logically, that would likely have made him press a little less and perhaps swing at fewer bad pitches.

Maybe I'm going down a slippery slope with this argument. Fact is, it seems to me that Hill has been just barely missing a lot of pitches or barely missing spots to drop his hits in. When his luck picks up a little, you can be sure he'll be back to his former self. Although their struggles were somewhat different, it happened to Rios and Wells after an atrocious 2009 for both of them.

I'm predicting that Hill will put up a .290/.350/.480 line in the second half. If his luck takes a HUGE correction, making up for his first half, that could go to .350/.420/.580 at best. But that's the gambler's fallacy, if I'm not mistaken, so I'll stick with the first line.

The Marco Scutaro Trade

On Novemeber 18, 2007, The Oakland A's sent Marco Scutaro to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Minor League pitchers Graham Godfrey (34th rd, 2006) and Kristian Bell (11th rd, 2004). Scutaro was brought in to be a utility man, having proven that he can play 2nd base and 3rd base relatively well and provide adequate defence at shortstop and left field.

He had an OK 2008, filling in for various injuries at all infield positions and putting up a mediocre OPS+ of 88. Fine, I thought. This is a decent utility guy who can probably have a good career filling in every once in a while. You can imagine how confused I was, then, when he was announced to be the Jays' starting shortstop and leadoff hitter in 2009.

Boy, was I ever wrong. Not only had I failed to realize that he was well liked by fielding metrics, but he managed a 3.1 WAR on the strength of his good fielding. And then came his career year at the plate, in which he walked at a 13.2% clip and posted 111 OPS+, although his fielding metrics went down considerably. He was entertaining to watch (notably stealing second base on his own walk against Joe Blanton in Philadelphia) and quickly became a fan favourite, with good reason. Best of all, he attained type A free agent status.

...

When Alex Anthopoulos signed John McDonald for 2 years at $1.5MM each year, I thought for sure he'd become the Jays' primary shortstop in this "building" season. A few days later, as you may recall, he also inked Alex Gonzalez (who shares the same name as my all-time favourite Blue Jay) for a $2.75, 1-year deal with a team option for $2.5MM. I didn't really like it but didn't think much of it. Another all-glove, no-bat shortstop for a year, probably won't pick up the option. And it's not my $2MM+, so no big deal. Then I thought of the possibility that Anthopoulos pulled Gonzalez before the Red Sox could re-sign him, as they had thought quite highly of him as a player, having traded for him in 2009. Could it have forced the Red Sox to, in turn, sign Scutaro? Maybe. In any case, that gave the Jays the #34 (Aaron Sanchez) and #80 (Justin Nicolino) picks in the 2010 Amateur Draft. Young, high-upside pitchers.

And then Gonzalez started to hit lots of home runs. By the All-Star Break, he led all AL shortstops with a 112 OPS+, somehow failing to make the All-Star Game. It's too bad, because that would be the last chance Jays fans would have had to see him in a Jays uniform.

...

So now Toronto's left with Yunel Escobar, a cheap, talented 27-year-old shortstop under team control until 2013, and Jo-Jo Reyes, a once-highly-considered prospect who has simply stunk at the MLB level so far. A reclamation project of sorts.

But let's focus on Escobar. This is a guy who the Braves probably wouldn't have traded for Travis Snider three months ago. Young shortstops with career OBPs of .370 with speed, growing power and elite defence don't grow on trees, after all. The fact that he wasn't liked in Atlanta has been spun a number of different ways. Some insist that it is a lack of hustle and too much showboating that made him lose favour with management. Others insist that he just never felt comfortable in Atlanta, and maybe a change of scenery will do him good. The truth, as it almost always is, is most likely somewhere in the middle. Escobar didn't learn much English, which clearly distanced him from his teammates and the media, as well as American culture. But when several sources criticize someone's attitude, it's unlikely that it's being fabricated. This is reminiscent of the Rios scenario with the Jays last year, and the Jays are hopeful that a change will wake him up as well as let him settle down.

Oh yeah, the Jays traded 5'7" Tim Collins of the 15+K/9 ratio and SS Tyler Pastornicky to the Braves. Potentially good players, but you have to give talent to get it.

...

It's a bit of a stretch to say that Graham Godfrey and Kristian Bell, along with Collins and Pastornicky were traded for Yunel Escobar, Jo-Jo Reyes, Justin Nicolino and Aaron Sanchez. But the fact is, despite all that's been made of the Jays' shortstop conundrum of late, all that has turned around, starting with Marco Scutaro's great performance in 2009. After the Jays and Red Sox essentially traded shortstops in the offseason, the Jays won out, receiving a huge first half from Gonzalez (and 2 young drafted pitchers) and spinning that into potentially a great player for the longer term. And the salaries in all of that? Scutaro earned $2.65MM in his 2 years in Toronto, and Alex Gonzalez about $1.5MM in his half season. That adds up to about two fifths of what they're paying B.J. Ryan this year.

Giguere Will Fit Right In

I was just looking over at his W-L-OTL stats. 4-8-5. 5 overtime losses. Awesome. In all seriousness, of course, overtime losses can be a little random, especially with that damned shootout rule they added to appease the rednecks. But still, he'll fit right - hey, he just got a shutout? That can't be right! I thought that the post-lockout rules stated that goalies are not allowed to get shutouts in a Leafs uniform. Wait, you say he wasn't in a Leafs uniform?

I think we should let him keep his semi-ducks uniform until further notice. Yeah, that'll do it. I didn't see the whole game, but the fact that the three new guys were anointed the three stars seems kind of cheesy to me (I don't know if these were the same 3 stars as chosen during the game, but whatever). But I'm sure most Leafs fans enjoy that kind of cheese. New players!!!1 Playoffs!!!1

I'm not sure what to make of the trade yet, except this: their third best forward is... Lee Stempniak? That's not exactly depth on offense. And when you're giving up over 3 goals a game, that could be a problem. If Phaneuf ends up remembering how to be good and stuff, then it'll end up working out, of course. Oh yeah, and they got that prospect, which I guess is good, especially since the Leafs won't be picking much in the first round for the next couple of years.

There's An Asterisk Beside His Confession Too

Mark McGwire finally admitted to using steroids. In other mind-boggling news, Ron Wilson has come out publicly saying that he hopes the Leafs can start winning more.

It's been known for a long time that McGwire used the stuff. Look at the way he dodged the questions that Congress asked him a few years ago, stumbling through some bullshit about "I'm not here to talk about the past." Well too bad, juiceface, the government summoned you to talk about it. Being all rebellious and saying that you'd rather talk about "positive" things doesn't look good.

Should it really surprise anyone now that he's admitting it? Maybe I'm just cynical but when Alex Roidriguez confessed, I wasn't surprised at all. A-Roid's confession was a load of crap and crocodile tears - he only used it for a year or so? Again, bullshit. There was evidence against him based on the drug test from that year, so he didn't really give up much by admitting it and he couldn't man up by saying that he had used it at other times. Anyone who believes that is an idiot or a Yankees fan, groups that clearly are not mutually exclusive.

McGwire today tried to justify his abuse of steroids by saying that he would have hit just as many home runs without it. What?! I mean, he didn't even concede that it may have helped with a single home run. And now he's trying to convince everyone he's a good guy who just made a decision that he had to do... for his health. Again, what?!?! Is it the heart attack at 40 you're looking for or the shrunken balls you want? I can't see much good coming out of this statement - let's just wait for the next wave of boneheads at gyms across the continent looking to poke each other in the butts with needles, "'cuz Mark McGwire said it's healthy". No, I didn't happen to catch his entire statement and learn what he meant with his "health" comment but then again, neither would most of these boneheads.

I wasn't sure whether to laugh or shake my head at how he tried to play the falsely pious/spiritual card by saying that his talent was given to him by God. I don't have a problem with giving credit to the Man Upstairs but if you're that talented, why screw up and mess with your legacy and reputation? And that's what this is all about. Notice that the confession came just after the Hall of Fame vote - during which he was left out again.

I hope he never gets in, actually. I thought the hype around the home run record chase was overrated when it was happening - it was clearly a function of the era, which we now know was saturated with 'roids. Now that I know it was completely dirty - McGwire, Bonds and Sosa all have been confirmed users - I don't think any higher of that era. And McGwire seems like a bigger jerk than ever before with his half-assed, twisted-truth confession.

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Mr. Hayhurst has a career in broadcasting or writing waiting for him when his days as a pitcher come to an end, which I hope isn't going to be for a while. Actually, I think his career as a writer has already started. I'd wish him luck on this endeavour of his but I know he doesn't need any.

His Room Was Always A Mess As A Child

Adam Lind doesn't like hitting fourth. He's OK with any other spot in the order, apparently, but he refuses to be the cleanup man.

That's hilarious.

Here we are admiring a young baseball player who has broken out all of a sudden with 35 HR, 114 RBI and a .932 OPS, a 26-year-old left-handed batter who isn't awful against lefties, who can hit with 2 strikes, who has the patience to draw a walk and a swing that hits for average and power.

And he reveals that he doesn't like batting fourth.

It's bizarre because no matter where you're hitting, the idea is pretty much the same - try not to make an out, and if the pitcher gives you an opportunity, hit the ball hard. I mean it's not like he's talking about lacking protection here - he stated that he'd be fine hitting 6th. The guy in the 7-hole on the Jays isn't usually a guy who'll offer the most protection.

No, it's a psychological issue that he's apparently always had. If he never gets over it and settles into a 5-hitter who can put up a .900 OPS each year, there's not much to complain about. I just hope Cito doesn't incomprehensibly decide to make John Buck his semi-regular cleanup man this year, the way Millar was last year.

As for who's going to slot in around him, I'm not going to spend too much time speculating now. However, I will say that I do like Aaron Hill hitting third. The guy in the 3-hole often comes up in the first with 2 out and none on, meaning a quick ding-dong would do a team a lot of good, both psychologically and scoreboard-ically. And he'll have lots of opportunities throughout a game to hit with runners on, assuming that the top 2 guys have the ability to get on base, and use that power. I think that seeing him as a lock for 30 HR year in and year out is a little foolish, but there's no question at all that he has the power to be consistently near that mark. What I think he will end up doing is being a little more conservative with his swinging. In his rookie season, he walked 34 times while having 361 AB, a far better rate than his 42:682 last year. Seeing as how players tend to become more patient as they mature, there's no reason why he can't get back up to a respectable walk rate. All this will mean is that by chasing fewer bad pitches, Hill will make fewer outs without compromising his power numbers, as those are fueled mostly by hittable pitches.

I don't know if that will be the long term plan for him but I won't worry too much. They Jays seem to have good options in Snider and Wallace (maybe even Encarnacion and Wells, if they get back to doing what they've shown in the past) to fill out the rest of the heart of the order and it's a certainty that Anthopoulos isn't done looking for more pieces to help round it out. This is a comfort rarely experienced in the past few years with the Jays and makes it really easy to poke fun at Lind's phobia.