Looking Back At Alex Rios

There are a lot of guys in baseball I just can't help but cheer for. This ranges anywhere from guys who've had ridiculous amounts of success right from day one, like Evan Longoria, to guys who have had to deal with critics from the day they were drafted, like Ricky Romero, to guys with limited skill sets, like John McDonald. The thing these guys all have in common, to me, is their desire to win and, to use a crappy cliche, "make the most of their talent", whether they have enough for two players or barely enough to stay in the big leagues.

That's one reason Alex Rios frustrated the hell out of me when he was with Toronto. He had so much natural talent that it looked like he would inevitably become a superstar, and when he was signed to that seven-year contract a few years back at $10MM/year, it looked like a great deal. Yet, despite some flashes of brilliance, he never lived up to what he could have been.

In 2006, he appeared to be breaking out, before fouling a pitch off his leg and developing a staph infection (despite there being no actual cut or scrape). He had 15 HR by the All-Star Break that year and only 2 afterwards, so it was obvious that the infection had taken a lot out of him. The next season, all looked to be fine in Rios-world, when he hit 17 HR by the break, and although he finished with just 24 on the season, his .354/.498/.852 line was very good, considering his outstanding defense in right field.

His 2008 season at the dish was a large disappointment, as he took a step backwards, finishing at .337/.461/.798. However, it's largely forgotten that he put up staggering defensive numbers - a UZR of 21.7 - and he actually had his best season, WAR-wise.

I think everyone else sensed it too, that there was something missing about this guy. His 2008 season included an above-average bat, 32 SB and outstanding defense. What's not to like, right? Normally, that would be the case, but fans in 2009 got on his case really quickly, culminating in his admission that he doesn't give a fuck. Oh, and his salary dump on the White Sox.

Despite my frustration of Rios' failure to unlock his tantalizing potential, I was quite pissed at that transaction. Part of it was the rumours that Ricciardi had been offered actual prospect packages for Rios. Part of it was my belief that he could somehow get turned around in 2010.

I remember watching his interview with Sam Cosentino in some tunnel in (I believe) Yankee Stadium. He was looking all sad and Sam had just asked him how excited he was to be going to a team in a playoff race. I'll never forget how he answered. I'm paraphrasing because I obviously don't remember the actual quotation, but his response went something like this:

"Yeah... I'm sort of excited to be going to a playoff hunt. It maybe will be fun. I don't know. I've never been in a playoff... in the playoffs before, so, yeah, sure."

He clearly didn't give a fuck about winning. In fact, his face had gone from sad disappointment to utter confusion ("Why is this guy asking me if I'm excited about winning?"). What a waste.

While I'm not sure how much truth there was to the trade rumours, and how much money the Jays would have had to eat to make them work, the second half of my fears began to be realized almost instantly in 2010. He had a remarkable May, slugging 8 HR, stealing 7 bases (against 2 CS) and OPS-ing over 1.100. It looked like he had started to give a fuck. Still, I wondered if he would be able to keep that up for a whole season because, you know, he had half a year to remember that he doesn't give a fuck. Or maybe the change of scenery would be good for him?

Well, it's August now. His Chicago White Sox are 3.0 GB of first in the AL Central. His K-rate is growing back to career norms and he has 8 SB to 9 CS since June 1. He's OPS-ing .632 since the All-Star Break. And I'm starting to think that maybe it was a mirage - specifically, a one-month mirage, as he's OPS'd under .800 in every month not named May.

What does that mean? Well, not much, really. I think the sample size is still small enough to not be able to draw definitive conclusions and things can change in the future. For now though, I'm happy that he left town and gave Bautista a chance to do a... pretty OK job in right field. I'm confident AA will take advantage of the $60MM of his books. And I haven't really watched the White Sox this year, but it looks like Alex Rios still doesn't give a fuck.

Another One-Hitter?

Brings back memories. First, Halladay's bittersweet second ever Major League start. I couldn't stomach the thought of coming so close to history and just failing to see it happen. I remember just staring into the television wondering if time could somehow be reversed for a few minutes there, so that Shannon Stewart may have leaped 10 feet into the air to rob Bobby Higginson of his pinch-hit, 2-out ballbreaker of a home run. Never happened.

Then, Dustin McGowan, taking a no-hitter into the ninth and seeing it broken up by the first batter. It was, to me, a remarkably similar story. A young, right-handed fireballer coming up and shutting down the opposing team until the last second. The only difference that day for me, as a spectator, was that I remember calling my friends in the third inning to tell them that McGowan was going to pitch a no-hitter that day. Never happened.

And then there are all the near-no-hitters and perfect games that the incredible Blue Jays rotation has popped into the boxscores this year, including at least two other times in which Brandon Morrow took one into the 6th inning or later. The most painful of all, of course was seeing Ricky Romero lose his bid in the 8th inning against the White Sox. Alex Rios had been booed all series long and responded by going 4-8 in his first two games against his former team in the first two games. Although he only had one hit in the second game (the one in which Romero pitched), he made it count, by ending the no-hitter with a home run. What bothered me about that eight inning was a number of things. First of all, Rios has been known to not care about - excuse me - not give a f??k. I had the odd feeling that booing him and making him sad and angry inside would bring out his indisputable talent. It's sad that he had to end Romero's chance of being recorded in the history books like that. Second, and possibly worse, is what happened the batter before Rios. A.J. Pierzynski took a ball in the dirt a few inches away from his feet and acted like he was hit by a pitch. This put Ricky into the stretch and the rest is history (or, not history).

In any case, that sucked. I could go on for hours about how much of an asshole Pierzynski is and how much of a waste of talent Rios is, but that's not the point. With all of the no-hit teases we, as Blue Jays fans have been subjected to, it hurts to see such a magical start by Brandon Morrow ended because a weak dribbler found a hole (in the infield defense and, apparently, Aaron Hill's glove). Sportsnet said during the broadcast that there have been 18 one-hitters in Blue Jays history and just the one no-no by Dave Stieb. That's a rather unfortunate ratio, considering how many times in recent memory they have come to repeating the feat, not even including the one-hitters.

A few last thoughts before I finish the less happy part of my rant:

Evan Longoria is a damn good hitter. In fact, I think he's such a complete player, a true 5-tool talent, that if I could pick any one player in baseball, regardless of contract or age, to start off a team, I'd pick him first. For that reason, I was almost yelling at my TV after Ben Zobrist's walk, knowing that Carl Crawford would not hit into a double play, and knowing that Evan Longoria would be due up in the inning. It really, really sucks, however, because, with all his talent, "Don't call me Eva" Longoria had to hit a ball about as softly as he can muster and find a hole - OK, I've been there already.

Anyways, the positives. There are a lot of them and I'm finding it hard to accept them because of all the damn teasing:

1. Brandon Morrow recorded 17 strikeouts. That is by far the best non-PED-assisted strikeout total in Blue Jays history (Roger Clemens got between 15 and 18 on 4 separate occasions, I believe, according to Sportsnet).

2. The Blue Jays swept the Rays, winning the games by incredibly-varying-from-day-to-day scores of 2-1, 17-11 and 1-0. First time they've even taken a series from Tampa since 2008! They now sit 8.0 GB of the Wild Card. Still unlikely, but, you know, you never know.

3. The first guy I mentioned in this post, the one in 1998... he eventually got his no-hitter in perfect game format. Sure, that was bittersweet, because it happened just about right after he left the Jays, but the path he took to get to it was quite interesting. I can't count how many one-hitters he posted, but I can say without looking anything up that he's had a decent career since that heartbreaking no-hit bid.

Putting the "Dead" in Deadline

There was so much hype going into the trade deadline that the Blue Jays might be baseball's biggest seller. So much, in fact, that I was actually losing sleep because my mind was running over all the possibilities. What big-time prospect will they get for Downs? What kind of young player could they get for Buck? Who's going to be stupid enough to give up something for Gregg?

Most of all, I was excited to see some of our young guns knocking on the doorstep come up and get their feet wet. Two months of everyday MLB action could only help when the team comes back in 2011 with a shot at contention. Then Wallace got traded and I still haven't been able to wrap my head around it enough to rant about it. I don't think I dislike that trade at all, but it was such a weird move for a team that's almost ready to compete that it was a mind-boggler. I was also anxious to see some of the veteran bullpen arms get shipped out so that guys like Josh Roenicke and Jeremy Accardo get back up here and be given a real shot. So much for that.

But, you know, with a few days to get over the let-down of no action at the deadline, I've fully come to terms with it. Sure, it was disappointing not only that the Jays couldn't add to their quickly deepening minor league system and it was disappointing not to be able to watch some fresh blood up here when the games in the last couple of months will be otherwise meaningless. I guess I can accept what's happened because of the organization's philosophy. They're looking to add players with very high ceilings any way they can. When teams did not offer some of their best prospects, the Blue Jays rightfully said no and will wait until their veterans, many of whom are Type A's and B's walk in free agency. The high-round draft picks that they will get next June will take much longer to reach the MLB than a Double-A guy that could have been had, but it's the ceiling that they're looking at, not the timeline.

There is possibly no better example of this than in the Wallace-Gose trade. The Blue Jays gave up a sure-fire MLBer - who was pretty much immediately called up by the Astros - in Wallace for a guy who will likely be no more than a fourth-outfielder. Although he's struggled with making contact and drawing walks (and hitting for power [and not getting caught stealing this year]), Gose is still 19 and supposedly has insane amounts of speed and if he develops properly, he can be a guy around whom empires can potentially be built.

So that's that. I haven't stupidly lost faith in the Blue Jays front office for failing to make a trade for the sake of it and acquire new, mediocre prospects for us to drool over and watch turn into mediocre MLB players. That's not how you'll ever win, especially in this hell of a division the Blue Jays have been damned to inhabit. We've already waited 17 years for a taste of the playoffs. Getting back there isn't a process that can be rushed. Quality still rules over quantity. That said, I still believe that next year, the team will be strong enough to have a legitimate shot at contention. They probably still won't make the playoffs in a division with three of the top 5 teams in baseball, but they've been consistently in the top 10 for most of the last decade and are improving.

Updated: I was pushed off the computer between the fourth and fifth paragraphs for long enough that... J.P. Arencibia will be called up after all. I feel bad for John Buck, who's been everything we could have hoped for as a $2MM catcher (and seems like a good person, unlike that f?ckhead who juicedly fouled the ball off of him), but I'm definitely really excited to see him play Cito bench the penguins out of him. Here's hoping to that not happening, as he figures to be a big part of our future, whether it means he stays on as catcher for a few years or gets traded for other stuff.

Oh yeah, and maybe they make some trades in August.

Jose Bautista, Utility Player

Title says it all.

Actually, that's what it says on Wikipedia. Seriously. The MLB HR leader at the end of July, with 30. Hopefully, whoever wrote that meant "utility player" in the sense that he can play multiple positions, not in the sense that he was mostly a journeyman bench player for most of his career.

But who the heck is this guy? I don't think anyone knows for sure, probably not even Jose himself. This is a guy who I was somewhat upset to see traded for Robinzon Diaz, who I thought was a pretty good catching prospect. This is a guy who came over in August 2008 from Pittsburgh and immediately (and darkly humorously) became the Blue Jays' HR leader with 12. This is a guy whose best asset at the time was his ability to change facial hair four times a week.

Not anymore. I remember watching this guy and cringing when he first came over because he looked like he was wildly (and unsuccessfully) swinging for the fences EVERY SINGLE PITCH. 0-2 count when leading off the third inning? Swing wildly for the fences. Down by 3 runs with bases empty in 9th inning? Swing for the fences. Using a fungo to hit ground balls to infielders during practice? Swing for the fences.

In 2009, his stupid-looking swing continued, and although he hit well against lefties, he sucked against right-handers, posting OPS's of .919 and .664, respectively. And then he went off in the last month and crushed 10 home runs. That put a few thoughts in my head. First, I didn't mind the trade so much anymore because Robinzon Diaz hadn't become much of anything. Second, I thought his versatility could mean something to the team, and I thought the sudden showing of power might be useful off the bench in 2010. I really didn't want to see him non-tendered, as many people thought he might be.

When talk came out of him becoming a regular, I was dumfounded. Most pitchers are right-handed, and he's proven that he can't hit righties at all. Then talk that Cito wanted him in the leadoff role? Shit. As I let that idea sit, however, I started warming up to it. I was thinking that, maybe, in the leadoff role, he might learn to stop swinging for the fences on every single pitch and try to make solid contact more. And, just as they let Marco Scutaro hit in the leadoff spot for a year (which netted them two high draft picks), I thought maybe the same could be done with Bautista, or he could be traded for a nice prospect at the deadline.

I didn't see this coming, however. Apparently, what has happened to Bautista boils down to just two things, which he mentions every time he's interviewed.

1. Regular playing time. Makes sense; it worked for Marco Scutaro, utility player extraordinaire, didn't it?

2. "Getting started earlier". Bautista has said that getting ready to swing the bat ahead of time has helped him. And, what do you know, his stupid wild-looking swing is gone.

So, what does this mean? I, for one, was not at all convinced that he was for real when he started off strong this year. He was available for at least a month on the waiver wires in each of my four fantasy leagues and I passed every time. I knew that he had the potential to hit 15-20 HR with regular playing time, but not 45, which he's actually on pace to exceed. Ridiculous.

He's still under control for another year and I do believe that the Jays have a chance of competing next year, so I'm in no rush to trade him. I would be disappointed if he didn't post another OBP north of .350 next year with 25 bombs, and any team can use that from a guy who can play so many positions. But what if the best possible deal comes along now?

All I can say is that I've never felt so confident in the Blue Jays' GM that the right move will be made. If two top prospects can be had for Bautista, I wouldn't be against a deal. Anything less, and I don't see Anthopoulos giving up on the guy.

Whatever happens, Bautista has been one of many bright spots on this season. From his massive home runs to his laser beam shots that I hope no one tried to catch bare-handed, to his rocket for a right arm, he's living proof that a team can be fun and exciting to follow even when buried beneath the filthy excess of the American League East.

Lifting Tallet

Yeah, I can't say I didn't see that coming. When Cito leaves his starter in there until his pitch count runs dry or he gets really deep into trouble, I don't think that's a huge deal. There probably is something to be said for developing confidence and an ability to "battle". But in game 2 of the Detroit double-header, the starter, Jesse Litsch, had been pulled after 5.1 good innings and replaced with mop-up reliever BBrian Tallet. That move was perfectly fine, considering the fact that they only had Tallet, Frasor, Janssen and Purcey available that game.

Tallet did an OK job getting out of the inning, allowing one of the 2 runners he inherited to score and getting the last two outs of the inning. Miraculously, he also breezed through the 7th without giving up a baserunner. With a 4-2 lead going into the 8th and three relievers left in the pen, that would have been a great time to get the innings-eater out of there in favour of, um, a good pitcher. Sure, you don't want to have to use two pitchers in the 8th and 9th and go into extras with just one guy left who can go 2, maybe 3 innings at most. What's the probability of a 2-run game going into the 12th inning though? Besides, if that was your worry, then why not bring in Janssen or Purcey to finish the 6th and 7th, then have the other one do the 8th and 9th in combination with Frasor? That way you have Tallet if you think the game will go into the 14th inning.

Gaston clearly blew this one. BBrian Tallet's ERA now sits at 6.27 (a number lowered by his several starts this year). And Jason Frasor's inability to help Tallet out of his mini-jam couldn't have helped his trade value, but that's another story.

Uninspiring

When was the last time we had a closer this uninspiring? A huge, 6'6", 250+ lbs. guy with glasses staring down batters in the ninth inning who's able to intimidate the heck out of other grown men. For about 5 seconds, which is the amount of time before he throws his first warm-up pitch and they realize he throws like a girl.

Sorry, that was rude. No self-respecting girl playing professional baseball would go about their business walking more than a batter every two innings. No self-respecting baseball player, PERIOD, goes and shows up his manager on the mound after getting pulled for walking THREE BALTIMORE ORIOLES in less than an inning. Kevin Gregg. He of the triple-G, double-B, full-of-suck, needs-to-be-traded... thing. He does that. And that's only half of why he's the least inspiring closer I can remember.

Giving BJ Ryan $47MM was moronic. It was, by far, JP Ricciardi's stupidest move. Even if he had stayed healthy all five years, stayed as unsustainably dominant for all five years, he would have pitched 350 innings at most. And although we knew he'd never stay that good and would quickly turn into the waste of money that he was, he at least got people excited for a time, what with his stupid-looking delivery and sometimes-unhittable sliders. Downs after him was a trustable closer because of his groundball tendencies and good walk-rates. Heck, Frasor had that split-fingered changeup going for a while, and even Accardo and Miguel Batista had pretty dirty splitters that could be counted on once in a while.

Gregg? Well, pretty much the only thing you can say about him is he should have a decent chance of getting a double play every time he toes the rubber. Because he's always walking people or leaving hittable pitches up in the zone that even bad hitters will jump all over for singles. And what's his out pitch? It seems like he can't even decide how he wants to get guys out, let alone hit his spots once he's made his pitch selection. He throws (at least) a cutter, 4-seamer, 2-seamer, a curveball, a splitter, and a slider. I'm pretty sure I've never seen a ball with changeup velocity + movement, so I'm not sure if he's thrown that this year, but still: 6 different pitches, all of which he can't consistently throw for strikes or rely on to fool batters to strike them out.

At least he ended the game quickly enough tonight, even if it was by letting the lowly KC Royals whack him around for 3 hits and have a guy on first distract him into a 4-pitch walk.

He's Breaking Unwritten Rules!

If you had told me before the season that the Blue Jays would be leading the league in home runs for most of the year, I'd have said, "Sure, why not?". If you had told me at the same time that they'd also go without a grand slam for the first half and have their salami-less streak ended by Yunel Escobar, then -

Well, anyways, I'm glad we got this guy and all, even with the possible headcase baggage, but I'm really starting to get worried about him. He bunts the pitch he sees in a Jays uniform - a clear no-no under Cito - and then bunts again two days later?! And then decides to end his season-long homerless drought by depriving all of his longer-tenured teammates, including the MLB leader in home runs, of the opportunity to hit the team's first grand slam this year? Way out of line. Next thing you know, he'll be hitting for average and drawing walks, becoming a positive OBP force at the top of the lineup.

He was kicked off of the Braves for "not playing like a Brave", whatever the heck that means. Well, he's not playing like a Blue Jay right now. He's overstayed his welcome. Good thing there's still two weeks until the trade deadline.